Denial or Recovery? The Future of the Republican Party

With the Democrats controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, there are those among the Conservative ranks contemplating how best to take maximum advantage of their newfound time in the political wilderness. Recruiting foot soldiers, grooming the next generation of leaders, raising money and engaging in a robust and often painfully honest bit of soul-searching all rank high on the list of priorities.

Crucial among those pressing issues is the debate of the intellectual-ideological foundation on which the next Conservative revival will be built.

What lies at the dogmatic heart of the Conservative movement? What principals are inviolable? What is considered heresy? Are pragmatics apostates to be excommunicated?

Will Conservatives define themselves by their principals and what they stand for? Or will they take the path of least effort and be defined by what they oppose as their friends across the aisle have done as of late?

Contrary to conventional wisdom, there are those within the Conservative intelligentsia that believe there is fertile ground to be cultivated in an Obama presidency.

With the Conservative camp having been divided since the debacle of the 2006 mid-term election along doctrinaire lines regarding the prioritization of moral, fiscal or national security issues, there are many that believe an Obama presidency may be the catalyst that finally unites the disjointed partisans.

Students of history among the faithful cite Bill Clinton's mid-term debacle in 1994 as the source of their fervent hope.

Though his presidency brought an end to the twelve year Reagan-Bush era, it likewise brought an end to the forty-plus year Democratic domination of the House of Representatives.

While Obama is blessed with a Congress controlled by his fellow political travelers, Conservatives take heart in Clinton’s mid-term defeat. Hoping he will experience the same freshman failure to translate enthusiasm into policy, they are preparing to bide their time in the role of the loyal opposition till Obama’s mid-term test.

With a history of tension and outright competition between Democratic Congresses and administrations, there are many who believe the odds are good that they will haphazardly cast victory into the ravenous jaws of defeat. With expectations that Obama will seek to govern from a pragmatic, centrist position, the potential for discord with the left-leaning Liberal-dominated Congressional leadership is substantial.

As the economy slides deeper into a burgeoning recession even while the current fiscal year’s deficit roars towards $1.5 trillion, the pressures to stimulate the American economic engine will come crashing head first into concerns over inflation and the national debt.

A plethora of issues from public education to ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan to middle class tax cuts and universal health care are now cast in a new light. Priorities and policy must be realistically tied to resources (taxes). The accumulation and acquisition of those resources will in turn be a significant driving force behind the development of policy, for example tax rates and deductions. The result is a vicious political circle that can quickly exacerbate underlying philosophical differences.

When those differences rise to the surface, the potential for conflict exponentially increases.

Heartened by the potential for internecine warfare among their Democratic foes, Republicans dream of resurrecting the success and momentum of the “Contract with America”.

Should the Democrats falter and succumb to petty rivalries or attempt to take the nation sharply to the Left, Republicans will turn the 2010 mid-term into a referendum on Obama and the Congressional leadership much like the nationalized campaign that ushered in Grand Old Party control of the House for six consecutive Congresses beginning in 1995.

However, in order to be successful and replicate the success of the "Contract", Republicans must offer something more than mere opposition to the Democrats if they hope to regain the trust and votes of America in 2010 and beyond.

Following the success of the "Contract", Republicans must clearly delineate the differences between themselves and their Democratic opponents. They must fashion a concrete series of proposals rooted in Conservative principals in the face of Liberal declarations that they are intellectually exhausted and bankrupt.

In doing so, they must acknowledge John McCain's admonishment that having seized power they were indeed seduced and ultimately corrupted by it. Should they have the intellectual honesty to admit and learn from this bitter lesson, they will find themselves taking the first uneasy steps towards political recovery and rehabilition. Failing to do so, however, will leave them mired in self-denial, facing further electoral humiliation and torment in the political wilderness.

The first step to recovery is admitting one has a problem, faithful readers. Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and Republicans uneasily look in the political mirror.